Power Supply Line Loss Decrease with System Dynamics Simulation and Scenarios Analysis ∗

In China, the electric power industry as a traditional industry for decades, has stepped into its next phase. The installed capacity by 2010 reached 960 GW. But the power shortages happened in a lot of provinces by April 2011, and the peak time of power shortages has advanced. How to use electricity efficiently is still a problem. In order to improve the efficiency, decrease the energy loss in electric power system is important.This article take Chengdu as an example, solves three problems. It offers the advices to decrease the exorbitant grid load, decreases the power supply line loss and cuts down the loss in energy and the emission in greenhouse gases. Scenario Analysis and System Dynamic Method are used to research the line loss and environment effects in the electricity supply system. Through the scenario setting and simulation, factors and suggestions have been given to decrease the losses. The model could also be used to research one industries’ development, taking the environment factors and the economy benefits into considerations.